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Oscar 2004 Picks and Predictions

Call it optimism, but in many categories, you’ll notice many “Should Wins” and “Will Wins” are the same. It’s difficult for me to believe that the Academy might get it right this year and hand out awards to the deserving - believe me, most years, none of my “Should Wins” and “Will Wins” match up – but it’s looking like the show is primed to shower The Return of the King’s Peter Jackson with the Oscars he deserves, namely Best Director and Best Picture

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley - House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law - Cold Mountain
Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
Sean Penn - Mystic River

Should win: Bill Murray
Will win: Bill Murray
Should be on the list: Paul Giamatti - American Splendor
Shouldn’t be on the list: Ben Kingsley

Though Oscar forecasters go on about Sean Penn’s performance in Mystic River, I think he should have been nominated for Alejandro González Iñárritu’s 21 Grams. Iñárritu allowed him more room for subtle nuances than Eastwood. And Giamatti was really an obvious and stupidly overlooked choice; he’s one of our most underrated actors. Those who have read my Mal’s Medicine know my feelings about Kingsley.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alec Baldwin – The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou - In America
Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Ken Watanabe – The Last Samurai

Should win: Tim Robbins
Will win: Tim Robbins
Should be on the list: Sean Astin - The Return of the King
Shouldn’t be on the list: Djimon Hounsou

For this category, I wish I could have been heaping praise on the inclusion of The Return of the King’s Sean Astin for his performance as Sam Gamgee and Andy Serkis for his performance as Gollum. But even if either were nominated, they wouldn’t stand a chance against Tim Robbins. His was the performance that most haunted me after watching Mystic River.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Keisha Castle-Hughes – Whale Rider
Diane Keaton – Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton - In America
Charlize Theron - Monster
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

Should win: Charlize Theron
Will win: Charlize Theron
Should be on the list: Scarlett Johansson - Lost in Translation
Shouldn’t be on the list: Samantha Morton

Who would have thought Charlize Theron could pull off such an incendiary performance? But a more important question, how could they overlook sweet Scarlett?

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Shohreh Aghdashloo – House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson – Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden – Mystic River
Holly Hunter - Thirteen
Renée Zellweger – Cold Mountain

Should win: Marcia Gay Harden
Will win: Shohreh Aghdashloo
Should be on the list: Joan Cusack - The School of Rock
Shouldn’t be on the list: Renée Zellweger

It’s time now to confess my fascination with Joan Cusack. She is one of our most indispensable, yet underused, comic actresses. And Renée Zellweger will win an Oscar eventually, but it shouldn’t be for this cornpone role.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions
Steven Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, David Reynolds - Finding Nemo
Jim Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan - In America
Sofia Coppola - Lost in Translation

Should win: Denys Arcand
Will win: Jim Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan
Should be on the list: Ted Elliot and Terry Rossio - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Shouldn’t be on the list: Sofia Coppola

I’d hate to slight the Coppola dynasty, but for me, Lost in Translation it was all about the acting. And I get a sense Bill Murray, whose known for his ad-libbing, may have put his own spin on a good portion of Coppola’s written dialogue. Also, the Academy too often awards “edgy” writing in this category; I guess that explains why Ted Elliot and Terry Rossio were overlooked for their good old fashioned talent for storytelling.

DIRECTING
Fernando Meirelles – City of God
Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola - Lost in Translation
Peter Weir - Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

Should win: Peter Jackson
Will win: Peter Jackson
Should be on the list: Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini – American Splendor
Shouldn’t be on the list: Sofia Coppola

Though both Clint Eastwood and Sofia Coppola are talented directors and clearly work well with actors, but their direction has been over-hyped. If Peter Jackson doesn’t win this category, watch for all of Middle-Earth to storm the podium.

BEST PICTURE
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

Should win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Should be on the list: American Splendor
Shouldn’t be on the list: Seabiscuit

Jackson's epic will finally get its due. Ernest Hemingway once said, “Integrity is like virginity, once you lose it, you can never get it back.” The Academy lost its integrity a long time ago and hasn’t a chance of ever getting it back. But after this year, if my “Should Wins” prevail, the Academy may earn a modicum of respect from the mass population of Middle-Earth.

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