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Oscar 2005 Picks and Predictions
This year's telecast, hosted by Chris Rock, will be Sunday, February 27th, at 8pm Eastern time on ABC.
Though many are saying Martin Scorsese's The Aviator and Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby are the frontrunners in this year's Oscar race, Baby only has 6 nominations against Aviator's stunning 11 nominations. However, never underestimate the Academy's affection for veteran actors, actors who direct themselves, and quiet dramas. And the always equitable Academy may feel that Oscar 2004, with The Return of the King sweeping practically all categories, was the year of the epic film, and this year it should resume its usual course of awarding smaller films. Therefore, I believe Baby will have better chances at taking the top prizes.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don
Cheadle
- Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp -
Finding Neverland
Leonardo
DiCaprio - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood -
Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx -
Ray
Should win:
Jamie Foxx
Will win: Jamie Foxx
Should be on the list: TIE: Paul Giamatti in Sideways
and Liam Neeson in Kinsey
Shouldn’t be on the list: Clint Eastwood
All bets are on Foxx winning this one. And though I don't think Eastwood deserves to be on the list, I wouldn't be
shocked if he's the surprise upset of the night. The Academy loves actors
who direct themselves. They also love an actor who stretches beyond his
typical characterizations. Though I found Eastwood's performance in
Baby the typical Clint performance, there
are a few scenes in which he sheds his gruff exterior and
“stretches” to become
a vulnerable, fragile old man - the kind of artistic humility the Academy has a
soft spot for. Though Giamatti and Neeson were snubbed this year, I'm
positive they'll both have Best Actor trophies before the end of their careers.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan
Alda –
The Aviator
Thomas Haden
Church -
Sideways
Jamie
Foxx -
Collateral
Morgan Freeman
- Million Dollar Baby
Clive
Owen –
Closer
Should win:
Thomas Haden
Church
Will win:
Morgan Freeman
Should be on the list: Freddie Highmore - Finding Neverland
Shouldn’t be on the list: Alan
Alda
Last year we had Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High versus Carl from Caddyshack (Sean Penn, Mystic River, Bill Murray, Lost in Translation). This year, we have Hawkeye from MASH versus Lowell from Wings (Alan Alda, The Aviator, Thomas Haden Church, Sideways.) Though Church has a good chance of being called to the podium, this is Freeman's fourth nomination. By Academy standards, he's due his first Oscar win.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening –
Being Julia
Catalina
Sandino Moreno – Maria Full of Grace
Imelda
Staunton -
Vera
Drake
Hilary Swank -
Million
Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet -
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Should win:
Catalina
Sandino Moreno
Will win: Hilary
Swank
Should be on the list: Regina King - Ray
Shouldn’t be on the list:
Imelda Staunton
Not only is Swank's performance in
Baby stunning, but her character undergoes the kind of
transformations that impress the Academy. If Swank didn't already have an
Oscar for Boys Don't Cry, she'd also be listed as my
“Should
win.”
ACTRESS IN
A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate
Blanchett –
The Aviator
Laura Linney –
Something’s Gotta Give
Virginia
Madsen -
Sideways
Sophie Okonedo -
Hotel
Rwanda
Natalie
Portman -
Closer
Should win:
Virginia
Madsen
Will win: Cate
Blanchett
Should be on the list: Sandra Oh - Sideways
Shouldn’t be on the list:
In this category, all are deserving.
Like her Sideways co-star, Madsen has a strong chance of getting her first Oscar. But two-time Oscar nominee Blanchett portraying four-time Oscar winner Katherine Hepburn? That's the kind of self-celebration Academy revels in.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
John Logan -
The Aviator
Charlie Kaufman
-
Eternal
Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Keir Pearson and Terry George
- Hotel Rwanda
Brad Bird -
The Incredibles
Mike Leigh - Vera Drake
Should win: Charlie Kaufman
Will win: Charlie Kaufman
Should be on the list: Patrick Marber - Closer
Shouldn’t be on the list: Mike Leigh
It's a toss-up between Logan and Kaufmann. If the Academy leans towards
good old-fashioned storytelling, it's a lock for Logan. If they're finally
willing to reward the most original and quirkiest writer in the past decade,
Kaufmann has never deserved an Oscar more. It's his third nomination and
should be his first win.
DIRECTING
Martin Scorsese –
The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford
- Ray
Alexander Payne
- Sideways
Mike Leigh
-
Vera Drake
Should win: Martin
Scorsese
Will win: Clint Eastwood
Should be on the list: Marc Forster
- Finding Neverland
Shouldn’t be on the list: TIE: Mike
Leigh and
Taylor Hackford
For some reason, the Academy hates genius - which explains
why Scorsese, along with Robert Altman, Terrence Malick, and the late Stanley Kubrick have
never won a Best Director Oscar. But the Academy loves actor-directors. Especially
actor-directors who also star in their own movies. It's difficult for me
to say that Eastwood will probably be earning his second Best Director Oscar while Scorsese
will once again leave the ceremony empty-handed, but Oscar history has a way of
repeating itself.
BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Ray
Sideways
Million Dollar Baby
Finding Neverland
Should win: Sideways
Will win: Million Dollar Baby
Should be on the list: Maria Full of Grace
Shouldn’t be on the list: Ray
Sideways is the kind of movie that Hollywood
needs to make more of. Critical and commercial support
should be heaped upon Sideways just so each year's quota of epics
and character-driven dramas is more balanced. Audiences wouldn't have to
wait until Oscar season to see heartfelt portrayals of life-size characters. That said, I would still
pick the sweeping, glorious epic Aviator over
the earnest drama Baby.
Nothing against Baby, but the Scorsese shunning has gone on too long.
Copyright (c) 2003
Bryan Stumpf.
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